Abstract:

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt's model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states.

METHODS:

We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period.

RESULTS:

The Holt's model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state.

Conclusions:

The Holt's model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.