ABSTRACT Purpose:

Increased attention has been focused on the survival of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients with bone metastasis. This study proposed to establish and evaluate a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of RCC patients with bone metastasis.

Materials and Methods:

RCC patients with bone metastasis between 2010 and 2015 were captured from the surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate cox regressions were performed to assess the effects of clinical variables on OS and CSS. The nomogram based on the Cox hazards regression model was developed. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were performed to evaluate the accuracy of nomogram models, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) were conducted to assess the predict performance.

Results:

A total of 2.471 eligible patients were enrolled in this study. The patients were assigned to primary (n=1.672) and validation (n=799) cohorts randomly. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS and CSS nomogram models were constructed based on age at diagnosis, sex, marital status, pathological grade, T-stage, N-stage, brain/liver/lung metastasis, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy. The c for OS and CSS prediction was 0.730 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.719-0.741) and 0.714 (95%CI:0.702-0.726). The calibration curves showed significant agreement between nomogram models and actual observations. ROC and DCA indicated nomograms had better predict performance.

Conclusions:

The nomograms for predicting prognosis provided an accurate prediction of OS and CSS in RCC patients with bone metastasis, and contributed clinicians to optimize individualized treatment plans.