ABSTRACT Energy is essential for human activities and, considering the prospect that the demand for energy increases, it is necessary to carry out studies of new technical solutions so as to make the use of the available sources feasible. Greater participation of renewable energy sources in the electricity matrix has been stimulated worldwide and a number of public policies have been adopted by different countries in order to seek greater energy security and sustainability. In this context, photovoltaic solar energy potentially plays an important role in the evolution of the participation of alternative sources in the world energy matrix, considering its abundance and wide availability in the terrestrial surface. This work proposes a methodology to model a scenario that estimates the consumption of electricity in 2050 in the State of Paraná and how it can contribute to the complementarity of the Brazilian electricity matrix. In addition, it indicates, based on decision factors, which are the most indicated mesoregions for possible deployments of grid-connected photovoltaic systems in Paraná to meet this demand.