This study assesses the impact of COVID‐19 on household consumption poverty. To predict changes in income and the associated effects on poverty, we rely on existing estimated macroeconomic impacts.

We assume two main impact channels:

direct income/wage and employment losses. Our simulations suggest that consumption decreased by 7.1%–14.4% and that poverty increased by 4.3–9.9 percentage points in 2020. This points to a reversal of the positive poverty reduction trend observed in previous years. Poverty most certainly increased in the pre‐COVID period due to other shocks, so Mozambique finds itself in a deepening struggle against poverty.